Who was actually right
Lower error is better| # | Outlet | Weeks | Avg error | Correlation | Early call | Best | Worst |
|---|
Error by week
Average places away from where teams finished. Lines fall as the season clarifies and the guesswork turns into evidence.
How this is scored
Every week each outlet commits to an order for all 32 teams. Once games have been played that order can be checked against what actually happened. The yardstick is the season's final order by win percentage, then point differential — not an official playoff tiebreak, just who won games.
Avg error is the mean absolute error: how many places off the typical team was. Correlation is Spearman's rank correlation with that final order, where 1.00 is a perfect call and 0 is noise.
The Superpower consensus is scored on exactly the same footing as the outlets that feed it, because the interesting question is whether averaging beats its own ingredients.